Both teams have been defensively solid of late, so we are expecting a low-scoring affair in this one. That said, we are also backing the home side to just about get the job done at the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 51.92%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 24.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.
2.55) 
-0.68) 
