AZ are unblemished on their turf in Europe, and that run of victories is likely to continue against a Lazio side expected to be without the sidelined Immobile.
Sarri's men have struggled for goals on their travels on the continent all season, making the Dutch side the likelier winner on the night and on aggregate.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
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