SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 6 | 8 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Vaduz had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Vaduz win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vaduz |
46.08% ( 0.03) | 25.93% ( 0.01) | 27.99% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.46% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.62% ( -0.04) | 52.37% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.94% ( -0.03) | 74.05% ( 0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.3% ( -0) | 22.69% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.65% ( -0.01) | 56.35% ( 0.01) |
| Vaduz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.57% ( -0.05) | 33.43% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.94% ( -0.05) | 70.06% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vaduz |
| 1-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.14% 2-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.52% 3-0 @ 4.13% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.68% 4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.08% | 1-1 @ 12.32% 0-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.92% | 0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.55% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0)Other @ 2.41% Total : 27.99% |
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