SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
41.85% ( -0.07) | 26.05% ( 0.1) | 32.1% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.2% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.89% ( -0.42) | 51.11% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.04% ( -0.37) | 72.96% ( 0.37) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.81% ( -0.22) | 24.19% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.48% ( -0.31) | 58.52% ( 0.31) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% ( -0.23) | 29.83% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.09% ( -0.28) | 65.91% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 41.84% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.1% |
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