Despite a minor blip at the weekend, and a recent shock cup exit to Estoril, Benfica have been sensational since December and should have too much firepower for a beleaguered Toulouse side.
Another disappointing defeat at the weekend has plunged Toulouse back into relegation trouble at home, and even though they have performed better on the continent this season, this will be a hugely difficult assignment for the French side.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 13.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
