With a huge clash in Europe against Benfica in Lisbon on the horizon in midweek, Toulouse must first attend to matters domestically, and recent form suggests they should get over the line with three points here.
Nantes' awful form of late shows no sign of stopping anytime soon given their profligacy in attack, and they could end up being sucked in closer to the drop zone by the end of the weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Nantes win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.09) 
