Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 8pm UK
Epet Arena
We said: Sparta Prague 2-0 Aris Limassol
Although the two sides share a lot of similarities, Sparta Prague play in a stronger league than their opponents, and they have won their last four games on the spin.
Given that the Reds have home advantage on Thursday night, they should be able to record a relatively comfortable victory.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Prague win with a probability of 66.45%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Aris Limassol had a probability of 14.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Prague win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.01%), while for an Aris Limassol win it was 0-1 (4.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Prague would win this match.
| Result |
| Sparta Prague | Draw | Aris Limassol |
66.45% ( 0.02) | 19.14% ( -0.02) | 14.41% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 52.9% ( 0.04) |
| 59.65% ( 0.06) | 40.35% ( -0.06) |
| 37.28% ( 0.06) | 62.72% ( -0.07) |
| 88.72% ( 0.02) | 11.28% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 64.11% ( 0.05) | 35.89% ( -0.05) |
| 59.63% ( 0.03) | 40.37% ( -0.03) |
