Villarreal tend to enjoy themselves in Europa League home matches, but while we think that they will do enough to claim a second-leg victory, we do not expect the Yellow Submarine to overturn the four-goal deficit from the first leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
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