Villarreal won on their last trip to France earlier this season, beating Rennes 3-2, but the form of Marseille undoubtedly makes the hosts favourites in this first leg.
Twelve goals in just three games since Gasset took charge has breathed a new lease of life into Marseille, and they are set to keep that positive run going here.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.04) 
