SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Switzerland | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Romania | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Israel | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kosovo | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Andorra | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 6 | Belarus | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 62.93%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 14.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.31%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Belarus win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Romania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Romania | Draw | Belarus |
62.93% ( -0.09) | 22.81% ( 0.23) | 14.26% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 41.37% ( -0.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.32% ( -1.04) | 55.68% ( 1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.17% ( -0.86) | 76.83% ( 0.86) |
| Romania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.74% ( -0.4) | 17.26% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.42% ( -0.71) | 47.58% ( 0.71) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50% ( -0.84) | 50% ( 0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.34% ( -0.58) | 84.66% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Romania | Draw | Belarus |
| 1-0 @ 15.16% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.18)2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 7.8% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.14% Total : 62.92% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 14.26% |
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