SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 48.2%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 22.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.08%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
48.2% ( -0.01) | 29.25% ( 0) | 22.56% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 38.48% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.24% ( 0.01) | 66.76% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.9% ( 0.01) | 85.1% ( -0) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.81% | 28.19% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.12% | 63.88% ( 0) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.58% ( 0.01) | 46.42% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.96% ( 0.01) | 82.04% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 16.56% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.49% 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.4% 4-0 @ 1.4% 3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.48% Total : 48.19% | 0-0 @ 13.08% 1-1 @ 12.71% 2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0)Other @ 0.36% Total : 29.23% | 0-1 @ 10.04% 1-2 @ 4.88% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.55% Total : 22.56% |
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