SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 34.87%. A win for Rwanda had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.89%) and 1-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Rwanda win was 1-0 (13.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rwanda | Draw | Madagascar |
33.94% ( 0) | 31.18% ( 0) | 34.87% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 39.13% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.37% ( -0.01) | 68.63% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.65% ( -0) | 86.35% ( 0) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.22% | 37.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.45% | 74.55% ( 0) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.88% ( -0.01) | 37.12% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.1% ( -0.01) | 73.9% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rwanda | Draw | Madagascar |
| 1-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0)2-1 @ 6.59% 3-0 @ 2.16% 3-1 @ 2.14% 3-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.71% Total : 33.94% | 0-0 @ 14.02% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 13.52% 2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0)Other @ 0.37% Total : 31.18% | 0-1 @ 13.89% 0-2 @ 6.89% ( -0)1-2 @ 6.7% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.28% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.22% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 34.87% |
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