Although they suffered a surprise cup defeat in midweek, Gamba Osaka have won their last two home league games, and we think that they will claim a narrow victory over a Tokyo side who have lost three of their previous four away matches in the top flight.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for FC Tokyo had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest FC Tokyo win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.
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