SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 48.91%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6%) and 1-0 (5.92%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
48.91% ( 0.62) | 21.61% ( -0.14) | 29.48% ( -0.47) |
| Both teams to score 67.56% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.28% ( 0.42) | 31.72% ( -0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.77% ( 0.5) | 53.23% ( -0.49) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.46% ( 0.36) | 13.54% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.38% ( 0.71) | 40.62% ( -0.7) |
| ADO Den Haag Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.14% ( -0.06) | 21.86% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.91% ( -0.09) | 55.09% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
| 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 3% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 48.91% | 1-1 @ 9% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.84% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 21.61% | 1-2 @ 6.84% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.41% Total : 29.48% |
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