Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 46.34%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.03) 
