While Benfica have been underwhelming in Europe, they are currently firing on all cylinders domestically and will be looking to move to the top of the table this weekend. Schmidt's side have enjoyed the better of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality and depth between the two sides, we are backing them to come away with a comfortable victory in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.14) 
