Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 54.06%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.19) 
