Having both failed to win their opening games of the season, Cruz Azul and Toluca will head into the weekend in search of a morale-boosting result and this makes for an exciting watch. Los Celestes' home advantage makes them slight favourites and we fancy them to pick up all three points, albeit by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
Cruz Azul	Draw	Toluca
41.61% ( 0)	24.83% ( 0.05)	33.55% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 57.79% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.62% (

-0.24)

45.38% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.28% (

-0.23)

67.72% (

0.23)

Cruz Azul Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.2% (

-0.1)

21.8% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.99% (

-0.16)

55.01% (

0.15)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.9% (

-0.15)

26.1% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.84% (

-0.2)

61.16% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Cruz Azul 41.62%

Toluca 33.55%

Draw 24.83%

Cruz Azul	Draw	Toluca
2-1 @ 8.87% 1-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.35% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 41.62%	1-1 @ 11.64% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.83%	1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.31% Total : 33.55%