Toluca have won the last four meetings between these two sides, so it is difficult to see anything other than a home victory. In addition, the visitors have a tendency to start the season slowly, losing their first match of the season for the past three seasons running. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 61.06%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 17.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.14%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Necaxa win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Necaxa
61.06% ( 0.41)	21.91% ( -0.06)	17.04% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 49.84% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.48% (

-0.29)

47.52% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.27% (

-0.27)

69.73% (

0.27)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.92% (

0.03)

15.08% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.39% (

0.06)

43.61% (

-0.06)

Necaxa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.69% (

-0.59)

41.31% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.17% (

-0.53)

77.83% (

0.53)

Score Analysis

Toluca 61.05%

Necaxa 17.04%

Draw 21.9%

Toluca	Draw	Necaxa
1-0 @ 11.78% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 11.14% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.94% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.35% Total : 61.05%	1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.9% Total : 21.9%	0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.85% Total : 17.04%