There is no denying that Lyon are in a mess right now, but they have shown significant signs of improvement under the guidance of Pierre Sage, as they showed last week when they almost completed a comeback from three goals down. Marseille are on a solid run coming into this match, but they have been leaky on the road this term and have managed just one win in their nine away games.
Despite the gap in the table, this looks like a fairly level matchup on paper, and we feel there will be nothing to split these rivals at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
0.76) 
-0.78) 
