Chicago have endured a steady start to this new MLS campaign but are yet to win at Soldier Field, drawing all three of their matches in front of their home faithful.
Minnesota seem to have the ingredients of a top MLS side this year, and we believe they will extend their unbeaten run to six games with a victory in Illinois on Saturday.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 50.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 24.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
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