SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Southport had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southport | Draw | Chorley |
28.34% ( 0.57) | 26.9% ( 0.26) | 44.75% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 48.77% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.03% ( -0.7) | 55.97% ( 0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.93% ( -0.57) | 77.06% ( 0.57) |
| Southport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.93% ( 0.07) | 35.06% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.19% ( 0.08) | 71.81% ( -0.08) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( -0.72) | 24.89% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.49% ( -1.01) | 59.51% ( 1.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southport | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 6.67% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 28.34% | 1-1 @ 12.72% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.91% | 0-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.84% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.39% Total : 44.75% |
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