SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.13%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 24.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Manchester City |
24.3% ( 0.02) | 22.58% ( -0.06) | 53.13% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.03% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.17% ( 0.28) | 40.83% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.78% ( 0.28) | 63.22% ( -0.28) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.78% ( 0.17) | 30.22% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.62% ( 0.2) | 66.38% ( -0.2) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.59% ( 0.11) | 15.41% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.78% ( 0.21) | 44.22% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 3.01% Total : 24.3% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.58% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 8.14% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.08% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.08% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.84% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.13% |
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