Famalicao and Arouca have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks, and with their European aspirations potentially on the line, we anticipate a thrilling top-half clash ensuing at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. With home advantage in their favour, the Vila Nova are slight favourites in this one and we are backing them to come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 53.34%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
-0.65) 
0.27) 
