Santa Clara and Famalicao have both endured a disappointing campaign and find themselves at the wrong end of the table. Unlike the hosts, the Vila Nova have managed a few decent results here and there since the turn of the year and we are backing them to come away with a slender victory on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (11.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
0.21) 
-0.08) 
