Following a rough few weeks, Vitoria de Guimaraes appear to have gotten into gear as they push to finish in the top five. However, they face the challenge of taking on a Rio Ave side who are unbeaten in five of their last six home matches since mid-February. We predict an end-to-end affair at the Estadio dos Arcos with both sides canceling out each other's efforts.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 39.61%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.18) 
