While Vizela have a very good recent record against this opponent, it is hard to back them with any real confidence this season, especially when taking into account that they currently possess the worst home record in the division. Casa Pia, on the other hand, have earned the bulk of their points on the road this term, and we feel they will come away from this one with a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.26) 
0.12) 
