Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 62.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 15.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.
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