Historically, Verona thrives against Cagliari, boasting an impressive eight-game unbeaten streak against them in Serie A, including five wins. They are also unbeaten at the Sardegna Arena in three successive matches and we think history might be a factor here even though Verona have struggled on the road this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 51.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 22.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.02) 
