With safety virtually secured, Genoa have been tailing off in recent weeks, while Cagliari's fighting spirit has sparked a revival. However, the hosts are tough to beat at Marassi and their Rossoblu rivals do not tend to travel well.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
1.36) 
-0.14) 
