The Derby della Capitale has seen more red cards than any other fixture in Serie A since the turn of the century, yet there has been just one dismissal in the six most recent meetings between Lazio and Roma. With so much at stake, a more ill-tempered encounter could break out, which might suit the Giallorossi more as Mourinho's pragmatism trumps 'Sarrisimo' again.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 53.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
0.37) 
-0.08) 
