Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 46.7%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 25.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a SPAL win it was 0-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
1.04) 
-0.42) 
