Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for SPAL in this match.

Result
SPAL	Draw	Cagliari
40.23% ( 0.3)	26.57% ( -0.14)	33.2% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 51.88% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.04% (

0.53)

52.96% (

-0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.44% (

0.45)

74.56% (

-0.45)

SPAL Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.13% (

0.41)

25.87% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.16% (

0.55)

60.84% (

-0.54)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.98% (

0.16)

30.02% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.86% (

0.19)

66.14% (

-0.19)

Score Analysis

SPAL 40.23%

Cagliari 33.2%

Draw 26.57%

SPAL	Draw	Cagliari
1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.33% Total : 40.23%	1-1 @ 12.63% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.57%	0-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 33.2%