Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 49.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 24.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
-0.16) 
0.19) 
