Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
1.01) 
-1.21) 
