Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 48%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 26.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0) 
