SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 76.28%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 8.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.53%) and 1-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
76.28% ( -0.82) | 15.21% ( 0.52) | 8.52% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 46.29% ( -0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.67% ( -1.52) | 38.33% ( 1.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.39% ( -1.63) | 60.61% ( 1.63) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.63% ( -0.54) | 8.37% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.87% ( -1.34) | 29.13% ( 1.34) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.52% ( -0.37) | 49.48% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.7% ( -0.26) | 84.3% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-0 @ 12.74% ( 0.27) 3-0 @ 10.53% ( -0.06)1-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.47)2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.2)5-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09)6-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.12)6-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.19% Total : 76.27% | 1-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 3.15% ( -0)Other @ 0.68% Total : 15.21% | 0-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.03% Total : 8.52% |
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