SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 15.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
64.2% ( 1.82) | 20.51% ( -0.6) | 15.3% ( -1.21) |
| Both teams to score 50.48% ( -0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.32% ( 0.36) | 44.69% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.95% ( 0.35) | 67.05% ( -0.33) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.8% ( 0.66) | 13.2% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.07% ( 1.31) | 39.94% ( -1.3) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.16% ( -1.36) | 41.84% ( 1.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.71% ( -1.21) | 78.3% ( 1.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.37) 1-0 @ 11.18% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.3)4-1 @ 3.37% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.98% Total : 64.19% | 1-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.94% Total : 20.51% | 0-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.66% Total : 15.3% |
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