SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Penarol | 29 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 5 | 46 |
| 7 | River Plate | 29 | 9 | 45 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Danubio | 29 | 6 | 44 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Fenix | 29 | -4 | 39 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
28.94% ( -0) | 27.96% ( -0.02) | 43.09% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.13% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.5% ( 0.08) | 59.5% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.14% ( 0.06) | 79.85% ( -0.06) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.51% ( 0.04) | 36.49% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.72% ( 0.04) | 73.28% ( -0.03) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.63% ( 0.05) | 27.37% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.17% ( 0.07) | 62.83% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.58% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.07% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.71% 3-2 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 1.88% Total : 28.94% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.96% | 0-1 @ 12.94% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.45% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.39% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 1.85% Total : 43.09% |
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