Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 48.93%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 24.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
