SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 52.7%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 20.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.92%) and 1-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Qatar win it was 1-0 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Senegal |
20.92% ( 1.92) | 26.38% ( 0.81) | 52.7% ( -2.72) |
| Both teams to score 43.47% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.65% ( -0.73) | 59.35% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.26% ( -0.56) | 79.74% ( 0.57) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.23% ( 1.73) | 43.77% ( -1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.07% ( 1.39) | 79.94% ( -1.38) |
| Senegal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.31% ( -1.45) | 22.69% ( 1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.66% ( -2.2) | 56.35% ( 2.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Senegal |
| 1-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.6) 2-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.39)2-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.39)3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.96% Total : 20.92% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.38) 0-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.55% Total : 26.38% | 0-1 @ 14.73% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 10.92% ( -0.67)1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 5.4% ( -0.59)1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.26)0-4 @ 2% ( -0.32)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.65% Total : 52.69% |
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