SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 44.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.81%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.91%), while for a Qatar win it was 1-0 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Ecuador |
27.41% ( -1.83) | 27.67% ( -0.29) | 44.92% ( 2.12) |
| Both teams to score 46.06% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.84% ( 0.23) | 59.15% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.41% ( 0.18) | 79.59% ( -0.18) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.46% ( -1.34) | 37.54% ( 1.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.68% ( -1.34) | 74.32% ( 1.34) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.74% ( 1.22) | 26.26% ( -1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.63% ( 1.6) | 61.36% ( -1.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 6.33% ( -0.31)2-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.71% Total : 27.41% | 1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 9.86% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 13.18% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.51)1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.35)1-3 @ 3.85% ( 0.22)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.16)1-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.02% Total : 44.92% |
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