Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nuremberg win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nuremberg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.