Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.