Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AMGK win with a probability of 51.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 22.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an AMGK win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win it was 0-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
