Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 67.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 11.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.1%) and 3-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.
Result | ||
Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
67.57% ( -3.17) | 21.42% ( 2.23) | 11.02% ( 0.95) |
Both teams to score 36.69% ( -2.79) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.02% ( -5.87) | 56.99% ( 5.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.12% ( -4.91) | 77.88% ( 4.92) |
Guinea-Bissau Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.87% ( -2.89) | 16.14% ( 2.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.43% ( -5.56) | 45.57% ( 5.56) |
Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
43.75% ( -1.75) | 56.25% ( 1.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.39% ( -1.04) | 88.62% ( 1.04) |
Score Analysis |
Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
1-0 @ 16.55% ( 1.97) 2-0 @ 15.1% ( 0.36) 3-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.76) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 5.28% ( -0.75) 4-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.84) 4-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.64) 5-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.51) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.31) Other @ 3.12% Total : 67.56% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.67) 0-0 @ 9.08% ( 1.86) 2-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.42% | 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.84) 1-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.17) Other @ 1.55% Total : 11.02% |
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