We expect a tight and cagey affair in this one, with neither team giving too much away due to the fear of defeat. Nonetheless, we are also tipping the home side to scrape to a narrow win come the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 67.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 11.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.1%) and 3-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.
-3.17) 
2.23) 
