SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
44.05% ( -0.04) | 25.54% ( 0.01) | 30.41% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 54.11% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.4% ( -0.03) | 49.6% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.37% ( -0.03) | 71.63% ( 0.03) |
| Sierra Leone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.54% ( -0.03) | 22.46% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44% ( -0.05) | 56% ( 0.05) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.78% ( 0.01) | 30.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.62% ( 0.01) | 66.38% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 10.13% 2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.22% Total : 44.05% | 1-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.54% | 0-1 @ 8.12% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.94% ( 0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 30.41% |
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