Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Smolevichi win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Smolevichi win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.67%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 1-0 (11.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.