Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
