Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 50.93%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 25.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.
